Confidence, Certainty, and the Empty Tomb
(This is actually part 8 of a blog series – something I rarely do – if you are here for the first time I’d like to encourage you to read these in order before you read this one – you can get to part 1 by clicking here)
When I started this series, my goal was never to convince everyone that a particular date was correct.
In fact, if you’ve made it this far, you probably know that wasn’t really the point at all.
The point was to explore a subject that is often discussed with great confidence but not always with great explanation.
Calendars.
Prophecy.
Daniel’s Seventy Weeks.
The chronology of Jesus’ final week.
The assumptions behind our calculations.
The strengths and weaknesses of the various systems we use.
And perhaps most importantly, the difference between confidence and certainty.
What I Learned About Calendars
The first thing this journey reminded me is that ancient calendars were more complicated than many of us realize.
The Jewish calendar was not a fixed printed calendar.
It was observational.
Months were determined by the moon.
Leap months were inserted when necessary.
The calendar was connected to seasons, agriculture, and the rhythms of creation itself.
That doesn’t make it unreliable.
But it does make it more difficult to reconstruct with absolute precision two thousand years later.
What I Learned About Calculations
I also learned that calculations can be both impressive and fragile.
That may sound strange, but I think it’s true.
The mathematics behind many prophetic calculations are elegant.
Beautiful, even.
Yet every calculation depends upon assumptions.
A starting point.
A calendar system.
A conversion method.
A series of decisions.
The math may be flawless.
The assumptions may still be open to discussion.
And there is nothing wrong with acknowledging that.
What I Learned About Daniel
Ironically, the more I questioned certain calculations, the more impressed I became with Daniel.
At first I expected the opposite.
I assumed that if one part of the chronology became less certain, my confidence in the prophecy might weaken.
Instead, the reverse happened.
The details became less important.
The prophecy became more impressive.
Daniel saw the rebuilding of Jerusalem.
Daniel saw the arrival of Messiah.
Daniel saw Messiah being cut off.
Daniel saw the destruction of Jerusalem.
Those are astonishing realities.
Whether we can identify every date with perfect precision does not change that.
What I Learned About Certainty
Perhaps the greatest lesson for me was recognizing how often certainty exceeds the evidence.
There is a difference between saying:
“I think this is the most likely conclusion.”
And saying:
“This is the only possible conclusion.”
One statement reflects confidence.
The other often assumes more than the evidence allows.
As Christians, we should never fear honest questions.
Truth has nothing to fear from investigation.
And humility has a way of making us better students of Scripture.
What I Believe
After all the calendars.
After all the calculations.
After all the debates.
Here is what I believe.
I believe Daniel’s prophecy is extraordinary.
I believe Jesus is the Messiah.
I believe He was crucified.
I believe He was buried.
I believe He rose again.
I believe the tomb was empty.
I believe history changed because of it.
Those convictions remain unchanged.
The Empty Tomb
As I look back on this series, I find it interesting that the farther I traveled into the world of calendars, the less concerned I became with winning chronology debates.
Not because chronology doesn’t matter.
It does.
Not because dates don’t matter.
They do.
But because I realized something.
The foundation of Christianity is not a date on a calendar.
The foundation of Christianity is an event in history.
The resurrection of Jesus Christ.
The early church did not turn the world upside down because they had solved a calendaring puzzle.
They turned the world upside down because they believed they had seen a risen Savior.
That was their message.
And ultimately, that remains ours.
One Final Thought
The farther I have studied calendars, the more impressed I have become with prophecy.
The farther I have studied chronology, the more cautious I have become with certainty.
And the farther I have studied the resurrection, the more convinced I have become that the empty tomb is easier to establish than the calendar hanging on the wall beside it.
And perhaps that is exactly how it should be.
Because while calendars may be debated, Christ is not.
While dates may be questioned, the Gospel remains.
And while historians continue to discuss chronology, the risen Savior still changes lives.
That, more than any calendar, is what ultimately matters.
phillipbrande.com 